I’ve posted a PDF version of my thesis on my web site. You may download it here (warning: it’s 6.4 MB). If you would like it in net-friendly bite-size pieces (12 Word files, none larger than 200 kb), email me and I’ll send them off.

While the thesis has received departmental honors and a place at Sawyer Library, the piece is still a work in progress. It analyzes only a small fraction of my fieldwork, which, in turn, only covered a part of the political spheres of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Mongolia. I’m continuing to work on it and will present a version of it at the MECA conference in September.

Thus, I would greatly appreciate (and will formally acknowledge in future editions) any comments, critiques and/or suggestions. Feel free to email me with anything - I’d love to correspond via email about different perspectives on democratization. I assigned the thesis the most conservative Creative Commons deed only to dissuade plagiarism, but I’m more than happy to see it distributed (please email me).

If you think the ongoing cat-fights in the Mongolian khural (see an excellent report in Word and HTML format) represent the world’s most juvenile bickering, Mexico’s presidential candidates give the MPs a run for their money with highly personal attacks. This, of course, has been going on for years, but it certainly sets an ethical low point that campaigns for democratic politicians around the world can aspire to stoop…

From Sunday’s Washington Post:

“Forget President Bush’s ‘axis of evil.’ Who are the overlooked autocrats we should be paying attention to but aren’t? Outlook asked people in the know for their nominations:”

Islam Karimov, President, Uzbekistan

Karimov’s acts of barbarism in the name of security are infamous. By some accounts, he has had his victims boiled alive and had others tortured with beatings, electric shock, asphyxiation, rape and burns. Having come to power as a Communist Party official in the former Soviet Union, he has ruled since the collapse of the USSR through a series of suspect elections. He won the presidency with 86 percent of the vote in 1991 and extended his mandate in 2000 with 91.9 percent of the vote.

– Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), Senate Foreign Relations Committee

Saparmurad Niyazov, President, Turkmenistan

Also known as “Turkmenbashi,” Niyazov has been his country’s absolute ruler for the past 20 years. The worst features of the Soviet totalitarian system are preserved in Turkmenistan: a gulag of penal colonies; the confinement of dissenters in psychiatric hospitals; show trials; and refusal to permit dissenters to leave the country. Within the country, Niyazov is hailed as a national prophet, and his book, “The Ruhnama,” is treated as a sacred text. Though Turkmenistan derives vast revenue from its natural gas reserves, its population of 5 to 6 million is impoverished, education is severely restricted and even reports on infectious diseases are prohibited.

– Aryeh Neier, President, Open Society Institute

Also see the main article.

If I’ve gotten either my facts or my opinions wrong on any of the Mongolian Protest posts, please email me or post a comment!

If the UB Post and Mongol Messenger are any indication (which they probably aren’t), there has not been a lot of political dialog in the newspapers - the opinion pages are silent. Indeed, the only media controversy seems to be a heated Wikipedia battle. Perhaps media outlets are taking defamation laws seriously, but one would think that a healthy division between the news and op-ed pages could overcome this. Of course, media bias is a problem throughout the world, but in Mexico, for example, by purchasing three or four of the main newspapers (e.g. leftist Journada and rightist Crónica) you could triangulate with reasonable accuracy what actually took place. Given protestors’ misconceptions about the whole Ivanhoe process, though,it seems that there was a lot of misinformation out there - though I’m not sure who is responsible for this (Was the press release translated into Mongolian? Ivanhoe’s Mongolian page does not seem to have been updated Was it distributed to NGO leaders?) It would have been nice to hear more than one quote from Layton Croft, Ivanhoe’s Executive Vice President for Corporate Affairs.

On a larger level, these protests are illustrative of the huge disconnect between elites and non-elites in Mongolia. All three protest targets - the parliamentary musical chairs, the Ivanhoe negotiations and Altjin Group’s silence over the SAPU fire - took place in the upper echelons of government power, and ordinary Mongolians had no way to participate in the process or, thanks to poor media coverage, learn about it. These protests have taken the country to a new level of political polarization, putting political NGOs in the difficult position of having to straddle the divide between two vastly different perspectives on Mongolian politics, if not splitting them altogether into ones that work closely with the government but are seen as sell-outs (or, to use a more academic term, ‘captured’) by the population and those which work more closely with popular movements but exhibit great antipathy towards the government (I’m thinking of J. Batzandan’s Healthy Society Movement here). This is taking the country in the wrong direction, away from the consensus between the three main sectors (government, civil society and business) required to successfully accomplish the judicial and legislative reforms that the country so desperately needs.

On a totally unrelated note, if you download the Mongolian Sights Google Earth placemark collection, the Mongolian parliament building is represented by a restaurant symbol. Must be some sort of political commentary…

Protestors focus on three main things: (1) Ivanhoe, (2) government corruption and (3) reparations for victims of the 12/05 SAPU trade center fire. However, they seem to all be combined into one agglomeration in Sukhbaatar Square, which proably makes it difficult for particular groups to get their message out - it looks like a disorganized mob of angry people.

The Ivanhoe case seems to be a combination of genuine nationalism and manufactured outrage on the part of the protest organizers, as the press release by Ivanhoe does a pretty good job refuting the protestors’ claims. It’s also interesting that all of the protests are at Sukhbaatar Square and not at the prominent Ivanhoe building 1/2-mile or so away (so I’ve read, at least). Also, the protestors might not realize that their presence will likely only make the negotiations worse and potentially ruin the deal. Misinformed protest is never a good way to make social progress.

Second, there’s the issue of protestors demanding government resignation. This seems to be the most irrational of the movements - do they really think that the well-entrenched politicians will listen to them? There is the ubiquitous threat of a ‘color revolution’-style ousting, but that would probably be the worst possible scenario, as it would throw the country into total chaos.

Finally, there’s the victims of the SAPU fire, who probably feel cheated by both the company and the government. Mongolia’s shaky legal territory and preponderance of corruption don’t help matters, and I’m sure there is not a small amount of class tension in the mix (i.e. wealthy businessmen and politicians conspiring to cheat poor merchants), which would not be surprising if it were true. Fortunately, it seems as if the issue is resolved.

I know I should be working on my thesis, but I need a quick diversion. (I hope none of my readers are looking at this, wondering where my priorities are!)

I’ll get to Kyrgyzstan in another post, but right now I want to focus for a bit on Mongolia. Rather than doing a postmortem on an event, I thought I’d try and capture (as best I can from Massachusetts) what’s going on right now in Mongolia.

For convenience, I’ll split this into three posts - a recap/summary, some second-hand observations and then some more academic commentary.

That said, let’s start in media res with a disturbing occurrence reported on at Neweurasia: “Altandush,” a young protestor, lights himself on fire. What prompted this extreme action? While, as a commentor mentioned, self-immolation is not unheard of, though it is in any circumstance extreme.

Here’s a brief chronology, compiled from news sources:

April 5: Resolute Reform and Just Society protestors, along with SAPU victims, attempt to enter the government palace but are repelled by police.

April 6: Protest challenges government’s signing of a pact with Ivanhoe Mines, demands mass resignations.

April 7: 2000+ protest calling for government-wide resignation.

April 8: Former tenants of the SAPU trade center, which burned down in December 2005 challenge the government to force the trade center’s owners to compensate the victims for their losses.

April 9: Protests continue, though, as Luke pointed out, Ivanhoe followed the letter of the law perfectly.

April 10: Students accept Tg1000-5000 from the MPRP.

April 10: Protestors block ambulance, patient inside dies.

April 12: Protests turn ugly as fights break out

April 13: S. Ganbaatar, of Resolute Reform, declares that the government must act by April 18.

April 15-ish: Ivanhoe makes a whole lot of concessions, but protests continue to escalate.

April 18: Unions and big business band together to demand fiscal reform.

April 18: 3000 protest in Sukhbaatar Square. No police intervention necessary.

April 18: Protestors announce a hunger strike.The head of Altjin says that she will be able to pay some, but not all, of what the protestors demand. 11 businessmen are compensated 30% of their losses.

April 20: SAPU victims continue hunger strike as MPs meet with them and the Altjin company.

April 21: The MPRP releases a statement saying that they’re going to cooperate more with NGOs/civil society.

It seems to have calmed down a bit in the last day or so, judging by the fall-off in news. Thanks to Luke Distelhorst (another Washingtonian! And Nathan makes three) for ongoing coverage - keep up the great work!

From the Embassy press release:

The United States Government strongly condemns the April 12 attack on human rights activist and NGO leader Edil Baisalov. Our sympathy goes out to Mr. Baisalov and his family. On April 13, U.S. Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch visited Mr. Baisalov in the hospital to express her support.

This cowardly act was not only an assault on an individual, but also an assault on civil society and on the principle of freedom of speech. We view this attack as a serious escalation of the troubling political violence that has occurred in Kyrgyzstan over the past year. Kyrgyzstan is unique among its neighbors for its vibrant civil society, and it is to the government’s credit that civil society has been allowed to flourish. This attack is a stark reminder that civil society must be protected.

Mr. Baisalov is outspoken in his criticism of organized crime in Kyrgyzstan. We urge the Kyrgyz Government to take a stand on combating organized crime and upholding the rule of law. We further urge the Kyrgyz government to vigorously investigate this crime and provide security to Mr. Baisalov and others who may be at risk.

Whether Russia, China or any other state will put out a similar statement is an open question. (My money is on ‘no’.)

Criminal proceedings have begun, but given the rampant corruption and bureaucratic inefficiency (despite what Bakiev says), I would guess that the assailant will not be found. Hopefully, this will shock the state into taking a hard look at the shenanigans that take place on a daily basis, but I’m becoming more pessimistic every day.

As I first learned of on Registan, Edil Baisalov of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society (and guest of Williams College) was violently attacked in an assassination attempt outside the Coalition’s offices near Ala-Too Square in Bishkek. The complete breakdown of public services (police, emergency transportation) made the situation worse - the assassin is on the loose and the lack of an ambulance likely endangered Baisalov’s life. Thank God he’s OK.

Baisalov has bravely lobbied for greater measures to combat organized crime. Kulov visited him in the hospital, and hopefully more will come out of that meeting than a PR opportunity for an administration whose inaction Baisalov has taken the lead in criticizing. Baisalov says that he won’t be intimidated. In a climate of fear that has enveloped Kyrgyzstan. He’s truly an inspiration for democracy activists worldwide, and the Kyrgyz government can no longer afford to ignore him (if they ever could).

The widening campaign against organized crime in Kyrgyzstan pits a hardy band of NGOs against some of the most deeply entrenched interests controlling politics - groups that are likely holdovers of apparatchiks that have been allowed to flourish in an environment in which everything (and everyone) has their price. Perhaps Russia, seeing a connection with its anti-narcotrafficking efforts, could increase its assistance? However, there seems not to be much that the U.S. can do - State should release a statement praising Baisalov and calling for greater security measures, but it would be difficult to complement the message with an expression of soft power - extra development assistance (or perhaps penalties for failed domestic security promises) would likely not be enough to turn the tide against the criminal syndicates. In any event, Kyrgyzstan is definitely backsliding, an indication, in my opinion, of the disconnect between people and the government - the latter can afford not to take the former seriously (as has been the case so far with the protests) and individuals do not perceive their stake in the government and try to avoid interacting with it at all costs. However, in order to expel the criminal plutocrats from power, people will need to be more engaged in political affairs so they can respond when politicians try to dupe them. As Edil Baisalov shows, the Kyrgyz people are not pushovers, and through grassroots political organization they can work towards a more transparent and representative government.

Apparently, Kyrgyzstan is offering yurts at $10k a pop to Hurricane Katrina victims:

“After Katrina, people really need some temporary houses,” explained the Kyrgyz Embassy’s Saltanat Tashmatova, at the front door of the yurt. A brochure says the 14-foot-high structure, made from sheep’s wool and “cool in summer,” sells for $10,000 — but the floor model can be had for $7,000. Any sales yet? “We just started,” Tashmatova said with a shrug.

After the Manas debacle (is this true?), is this Bakiev’s latest get-rich-quick scheme?

“ИДИОТЫ!!!“(Idiots!)

This Week in God featured Turkmenbashi-worship as the “Hot New Religion” - those who read his book will go straight to heaven.