A lot of research here in Dushanbe - Tajikistan is a fascinating case study in the immense and numerous challenges facing international aid and development programs. Much of the difficulties in Kyrgyzstan are an even larger influence here: the cultural divide between locals and Westerners is larger, the economic situation more desperate, the government more authoritarian than Akayev at his worst, and on top of a Soviet legacy (or ‘mentality’), there is the immense baggage of the Civil War. More to come soon.

One of the things many people have echoed here and in Bishkek is the ascendence of Russian influence in Central Asia. The five republics still look to Russia for their IR cues, and in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan at least (probably in Kazakhstan and who knows about Turkmenistan) the March events in Bishkek (people here are hesitant to call it a Revolution) scared governments into cracking down. The Internews trial will be a good test case, as Karimov sets the standard for Central Asian authoritarianism. It’s unclear how Bakiev will act - it seems like he is trying to get the get the best of both worlds - that is, the first and second worlds. Will the pressure signal a new Great Game? It seems that there will definitely be implications for and modern Great Power relations. What impact will this have on the progress of democracy? Certainly the Russian-led effort to curtail foreign funding for NGO’s will create problems for American programs - as a recent US House of Representatives hearing noted, “progress continues to be measured largely in terms of civil society development”, and a USAID page noted that “the development of a vibrant civil society is a basic underpinning to democratization”. Thus, even if Russia (or China or Uzbekistan) fails in pushing the United States out of Central Asia, it seems like their means will have as much an effect on the democratic prospects in the republics as their ends. However, it seems like the success of authoritarianism is becoming more likely, particularly if the United States backs down from the recent challenge. We’ll see if Rumsfeld accomplishes more in his upcoming visit than he did on his last.