In terms of political evolution, Tajikistan is at least a decade behind Kyrgyzstan. It presents an interesting comparison, as it suffered both a past civil war (which was always highly unlikely in Kyrgyzstan, but North-South tensions are nevertheless present) and currently languishes under an increasingly authoritarian government (particularly after Kyrgyzstan’s March uprisings, which people describe here as the ‘occasional revolution’ - in other words, that it was an accident that should not have happened; in any event, the Tajik government is taking no chances). Cultural factors that make difficult the introduction of Western democratic principles such as rule of law, the social contract and government representation and accountability are stronger here. Beyond the ‘Soviet mentality’, there is even stronger pastoralism, created by larger mountain barriers (to the extreme that people in neighboring valleys can barely understand each other), greater family connections (like the Eskimos’ myriad words for snow, Tajiks have words that explicitly lay out the specific connection between people [i.e. my mother’s brother’s son, etc.]), and a greater acceptance of and tolerance for corruption.

The hope among many international organizations is to create a new generation of Tajiks open to cosmopolitan ideas and enable them to become leaders for their own people (this is also a strategy for Kyrgyzstan, but there is more hope there for the country’s present as well as its future). Unfortunately, the fall of the Soviet Union meant the end of a well-funded system of education - the generation that is supposed to lead the country has come from crumbling schools and abysmal classrooms; although they are now no longer lectured at great length on mundane topics (as during Soviet times), in all likelihood, they are not getting much of anything at all. With corrution more entrenched in the education system now than ever before (paying for entrance to school, paying for grades, paying for the diploma, etc.), it is unlikely that even basic knowledge (to say nothing of critical and creative thinking, major deficiencies in every generation in Tajikistan) such as literacy or arithmetic will be taught and the new generation will be more unprepared than ever to be the leaders in business and politics that the country so desperately needs.

Can international organizations save Tajikistan? The key, in my perception, lies in the government, a corrupt, nepotistic, bureaucratic kleptocracy bent on maintaining control and keeping the population in submission at all costs, buying into the concept that an empowered, educated populace will be better in the long run than the current situation, even if it means the end of the cushy lifestyles of virtually everyone in power currently (they can always escape to Russia a la Akaev…). Change is happening, mainly through NGO’s, but the pace is painfully glacial and by the time the government finally wakes up, is may be too late.